中国季报分析-趋势表达

China Quarterly Update_June_2010-World

Bank Office-Beijing

世界银行中国经济季报

专题——趋势的表达方式

上升、增长类 英 Increase 中 增长 页码 P4, L1 例子 In mid April, the government took measures to contain the housing price increases (see below).（P4） 4 月中旬，中国采取了遏制房地产价格上涨的 措施（见下文）。 Use the public finances to increase household disposable incomes. 使用公共财政增加家庭可支配收入 增加 P13, L1 GrowGrowth 、增长 P1, L14 China’s economy has continued to grow robustly, with some softening recently.（P1） 中国经济继续有力增长，但在最近增速略为放缓。

增长 P9 Moreover, continued low core inflation reflects the influence of China’s pattern of growth, with large increases in the supply of goods and services, compared to increases in demand. 而且，持续的低核心通胀反映了中国增长方式的影响，即商品和服务的供给增长大于 需求的增长。 Private enterprises were substantially outgrowing SOEs before the crisis.（P3） 在危机前，私营企业的增长显著快于国有企业。 Household consumption growth has held up well, reflecting a favorable labor market.（P1） 中国的经济前景依然良好。 由于日益增加的外汇储备带来更多的收益，以美元计的经常账户盈余带来更多收益，其中占GDP得基本比例保持不变。 The recovery of consumer confidence and continued consumer spending growth since early 2009 are in large part fueled by a strong labor market 自2009 年初以来，消费者信心逐渐恢复，消费支出也持续增长。这在很大程度上是受益于强劲的劳动力市场（图4）。 In the first 4 months of 2010, international raw material prices recovered much more than prices of manufactured goods and China’s terms of trade declined again. 在前四个月，国际原材料价格回涨快于成品价格恢复，中国贸易条件再次恶化。 Despite a rapid recovery of export volumes since the trough in early 2009, China’s trade surplus has declined further due to surging import volumes and declining terms of trade.（P1） 尽管出口量从2009 年初的低谷迅速回升，但由于进口激增和贸易条件恶化，中国的贸易顺差进一步下降。 China’s trade surplus has declined sharply since 2008 due to surging import volumes and declining terms of trade. 中国的贸易顺差自2008年以来由于进口量激增和贸易条件恶化而大幅下降。 With the urban labor market survey indicating rising demand for labor, compared to supply, wage growth picked up again, at least for migrants.（P4） 城镇劳动力市场调查显示劳动力需求增长强于供给，Outgrow 增长快于 P3, L1 Hold up well 增长保持良好 基本不变 P1 P11 Recovery 回升、恢复、复苏 P4 回涨 P11 Surge、Surging 激增 P1 激增 P5 Pick up 有所上升 P4

工资增长也随之再次提速（至少对农民工是如此）。 上升 P6 Inflation has picked up somewhat because of higher food prices, but core inflation remains low. 部分的受到食品价格上涨的推动，通货膨胀有所上升，但核心通胀仍处于低位。 However, soaring property prices triggered tough property-specific measures.（P1） 快速上涨的房价导致采取了专门针对房地产的严厉措施。 Normal imports have soared but are bound to slow down. 一般贸易进口已快速增长，但势头不会持续。 The contributions from labor and TFP are likely to decelerate somewhat while, with some rebalancing expected, capital accumulation should also slow.(P1) 劳动力和全要素生产力对经济增长的贡献将有所下降，而由于经济再平衡，资本的积累也会减缓。 With the trade surplus traditionally the key driver of foreign reserves accumulation, its decline has somewhat slowed the accumulation of reserves, even though net financial flows were positive in the first quarter. 由于贸易顺差传统上是外汇储备增加的主要来源，因此尽管今年一季度的资本净流入仍然为正，顺差的下降还是一定程度上减缓了外汇储备的增长。 After bottoming out in early 2009, employment recovered on the back of the strong domestic economy.（P4） 就业在2009 年初达到低谷，此后随着国内经济的强劲增长而开始恢复。 With some—but no drastic—further rebalancing expected, the share of consumption is likely to bottom out and to rise somewhat through 2015 考虑到一定程度的但并不剧烈的经济再平衡，从现在起到2015年，消费在经济中所占的份额将逐渐见底并有所上升。 Leading indictors and industrial production data suggest some moderation (yoy) in the second quarter, to a still rapid pace。（P2） 但在二季度，经济领先指标和工业生产数据都表明（同比）增长有所放缓，但仍保持快速增长。 SOEs’ weight in production has not risen recently and the long term trend is for it to decline.（P2） 国有企业在生产中所占比重近期没有上升，而长期的趋势是下降。 Soar、Soaring 快速上涨 P1 P5 Accumulation 积累 P1 增长 P5 Bottom out 触底反弹 P4 见底 P4 To a rapid 快速增长 pace P2 Rise 上升 P2

升幅 P5 中国的出口产品（几乎全部是工业制成品）的价格比中国进口的制成品价格降幅要大，或是升幅要小 prices of China’s exports, which are almost all manufactured goods, have fallen more and risen less than prices of manufactured goods imports More recently, net external trade has become less of a drag on growth as exports have accelerated alongside a rebounding world economy.（P2） 最近，由于出口随着世界经济的反弹而快速增长，净贸易拉低经济增长速度的效果减弱。 They included raising minimum mortgage down payment and mortgage interest rates, virtually banning lending for people buying their third home, and asking local governments to increase land supply for and accelerate construction of “mass market and low-end housing.” 这些措施包括提高住房按揭贷款的首付比例和贷款利息，事实上禁止向第三套住房者提供贷款，以及要求地方增加土地供应以加快普通住房和保障性住房建设。 Export volumes have recovered fast in the last 12 months, reflecting improved global demand and further market share gains.（P4） 出口实物量在最近12 个月迅速恢复，反映了全球需求的改善和中国在全球市场份额的进一步提高。 Further market share gains 市场份额的进一步提高 They were estimated 10 percent up on two years ago. 据估计，中国出口量较两年前已上升了10% However, property prices have surged on the back of the expansionary monetary stance and have triggered measures. Ample liquidity and low interest rates have boosted property prices, especially in large cities, where they were up 12.4 percent on a year ago on average in May, according to the official NBS data. The government took measures in mid April aimed at containing the price increases. 但是，房地产价格已经由于扩张性的货币而急剧上涨，并促使出台了控制措施。充足的流动性和低利率推动房价急剧上升，这在大城市尤为明显，大城市的平均房价在今年5 月相对去年同期上涨了12.4% 。4 月中旬，出台了一系列旨在遏制价格上涨。 Boosted by strong domestic demand, their particularly Accelerate 增长 P2 增加 P5 Gain 提高 P4 Up 提高 上升 上升 P13 P5 P7 Boost

推高 P5

rapid growth at the end of 2009 and start of 2010) is in part—but not fully—because of base effects. 前一年的低基数推高了这类进口在2009 年末和2010 年初的年同比增速。 急剧上涨 P7 However, property prices have surged on the back of the expansionary monetary stance and have triggered measures. Ample liquidity and low interest rates have boosted property prices, especially in large cities, where they were up 12.4 percent on a year ago on average in May, according to the official NBS data. The government took measures in mid April aimed at containing the price increases. 但是，房地产价格已经由于扩张性的货币而急剧上涨，并促使出台了控制措施。充足的流动性和低利率推动房价急剧上升，这在大城市尤为明显，大城市的平均房价在今年5 月相对去年同期上涨了12.4% 。4 月中旬，出台了一系列旨在遏制价格上涨。 After the world economy shrunk in 2009, the Consensus Forecasts suggest that global GDP (excluding China) expands 3.0 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2011 (Table 1and 2). 继2009 年全球经济收缩2.2%之后，今年全球GDP（不含中国）将增长3.0%，2011年将增长3.0%。 First, how to ensure financial sustainability in a setting of high “legacy costs” of the urban pension system,expanding programs and a rapidly ageing population. 首先，在城镇养老保险制度存在很大“历史包袱”、覆盖面不断扩大、人口结构迅速老化的情况下如何保持资金的可持续性？ Consumption growth has strengthened since 2008 while investment decelerated in the first quarter of this year, with government-led investment leading the slowdown (Figure 2).（P2） 在今年前半年，虽然由于主导投资放缓而带来总 体投资增长减速，但消费增长已自2008 年开始加速（图2）。 The incentives of local governments to be “on board” with the rebalancing agenda need to be strengthened. 增加对地方开展经济再平衡的激励。 However, given the flexibility of China’s labor market and the track record of China’s overall manufacturing sector in absorbing wage increases and keeping unit Expand 增长 P7 扩大 P15 Strengthen 增强、加速 P2 增加 P13 Spiral 螺旋上升 P9

labor cost growth down, this is unlikely to set in motion an unwarranted wage-inflation spiral. 此外，近几个季度的劳动力单位成本保持平稳，这与核心通胀保持低位是一致的，也显示尽管保持了扩张性货币立场，但还没有出现工资-通胀的螺旋 上升。 螺旋上升 P1 The external surplus should decline somewhat further this year. Inflation is likely to remain contained this year by the absence of price pressures globally while a wage-price spiral is not likely. 由于全球没有价格上升的压力，而且国内工资—价格的螺旋上升也不太可能出现，因此今年的通货膨胀水平看起来仍将受到抑制。 This is in part a cyclical issue, reflecting the strong rebound in the labor market after an earlier downturn when wage growth slowed 但是，这部分的是周期性的问题，反映的是前段时间工资增长减速后的近期劳动力市场的强劲反弹 More recently, net external trade has become less of a drag on growth as exports have accelerated alongside a rebounding world economy. 最近，由于出口随着世界经济的反弹而快速增长，净贸易拉低经济增长速度的效果减弱。 rebound 反弹 P9 反弹 P1 分析：

 出现频率最高的词： 英文 Increase Grow/growth Up Rise

次数 28 26 42 6  常见使用方法：

1、increase的使用范围最广，可以包括价格上涨，某一项目的提高（例如居民生活水平提高）。即既可以表示数量上的增多，也可以表示质量或其他方面的提高。

2、当提及上涨的具体比率时，一般会使用up。

3、几种特殊情况的上涨，包括：触底反弹（bottom out），螺旋形上升（spiral）。还有几种此文档中没有涉及的，例如V字型发展（V-shaped development） 4、常常用来修饰上升趋势的词有：

快速上升：rapid、soaring、surging、robust、sharp、spectacular（growth）、to a rapid pace

稳步上升：solid、step-by-step 缓慢上升：slightly 下降、减少类 英文 reduce 中文 减少 页码 第13，16页 例子 1、consider a capital gains tax on equity to reduce distortions and make the tax system more equal. 考虑对股权征收资本利得税，以减少扭曲，并使税收体系更为公平。 2、reducing the inequality in public spending. 减小公共开支方面的不平等 3、 local taxes would reduce the dependence of local governments on land revenues and allow local governments to benefit from those economic activities that the central government wants to promote,

改革地方税可以减少地方对土地出让收入的依赖，使地方从鼓励的经济活动中受益 Decline、下降、减缓 第1页（7）、第Declining、2页（5）、第4Decelerate、页（1） Deceleration 1、However, the decline has bottomed out in recent years.（P3） 不过，近年这种下降已经停止。 2、almost one-third of the decline in the trade balance in the 2 years to the first 5 months of 2010 was due to the worsened terms of trade 2010 年前5 个月贸易盈余相对两年前的同期水平下降，降幅中几乎有三分之一是由贸易条件恶化造成的。 3、we now envisage a somewhat more pronounced deceleration in the rest of the year, 今年剩下时间内增长减缓将更为严重 1、The contributions from labor and TFP are likely to decelerate somewhat while, with ome rebalancing expected, capital accumulation should also slow.（P1） 劳动力和全要素生产力对经济增长的贡献将有所下降，而由于经济再平衡，资本的积累也 会减缓。 2、So far in 2010, the slowdown in government-led investment (GLI) after last year’s massive stimulus has partly been offset by strong real estate investment. 继去年的大规模刺激之后， 今年以来主导投资的增长放缓。 3、with some rebalancing expected, expected, capital accumulation should also slow. 而由于经济再平衡，资本的积累也会减缓。 1、for instance by lowering social security contributions in a financially sustainable way. 如可以以财务可持续的方式降低社保缴费 2、hiving off the “legacy costs” in urban pensions (for separate resolution) to allow lower contribution rates.剥离城镇职工养老保险的“历史负担”（另行解决），以便降低缴费标准； 3、With regard to the level of the exchange rate, a stronger currency helps reducing inflation pressures by lowering the price of imports and Slow 、Slow 减缓、放缓 第1、5、11、down 13、15页 Lower（by 降低 lowering，to allow lower．．．） 第１３，１５页

toning down demand.至于汇率水平的问题，一个强势货币将有助于通过降低进口价格和压低需求来减少通货膨胀压力。 diminish 缩减、下滑、减少 第10、11、12页 1、The contribution from these factors is likely to diminish somewhat in the coming decade而在今后10 年， 这些因素对生产力增长的贡献将有所减退。 2、Thus, with export price increases assumed to lag domestic inflation, the export to GDP ratio should continue to diminish.这样，假定出口价格上涨速度落后于国内通货膨胀，出口额与GDP 之比应该继续下 滑。 3、Moreover, a delay of rebalancing may diminish the associated efficiency gains. 但是，进一步提高已经非常高的投资占 GDP 比重是与中国实现经济平衡增长、减少对投资的依赖性的目标背道而驰 的。 1、Between early 2009 and April 2010 they fell and in the first 5 months of 2010, they were still down on 2 years ago (Figure 7). 但自2008 年底开始工业生产急剧下滑，而2009 年出现了V 型的复苏。 2、Between early 2009 and April 2010 they fell and in the first 5 months of 2010, they were still down on 2 years ago 在2009 年初到2010 年4 月一直恶化。在2010 年前5 个月，贸易条件还低于两年前的同期水平 3、prices of China’s exports, which are almost all manufactured goods, have fallen more and risen less than prices of manufactured goods imports 中国的出口产品（几乎全部是工业制成品）的价格比中国进口的制成品价格降幅要大，或是升幅要小 1、China’s economy has continued to grow robustly, with some softening recently. 中国经济继续有力增长，但在最近增速略为放Fall，fall 下滑 more Fall steeply 第2、6、7、 (growth) 放缓 with some softening

第1页

缓。 2、Reports on commercial real estate activity varied, with some reports noting signs of softening demand. 商业房地产的状态则走势不齐，部分地区的报告指出了需求疲软的迹象。 Collapse 下滑 第2页 1、In early 2009, exports collapsed and the massive stimulus effort boosted domestic demand, infrastructure investment in particular. 2009 年前期，出口严重下滑，而大规模的国内刺激带动了内需（特别是基础设施建设投资）。 2、 1、After the world economy shrunk in 2009, the Consensus Forecasts suggest that global GDP (excluding China) expands 3.0 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2011. 继2009 年全球经济收缩2.2%之后，今年全球GDP（不含中国）将增长3.0%，2011年将增长3.0% 2、The working population is on course to decelerate because of demographic developments. We expect overall employment to shrink somewhat in 2015-21. 人口结构变化将导致工作人口增长下降。我们预计2015-20 年总就业将有所缩减。 3、As a result, the 12 month rolling budget deficit shrunk to about 1 percent of GDP in May. 到5 月为止的12 个月滚动预算赤字缩减为GDP 的1%。 1、With some—but no drastic—further rebalancing expected, the share of consumption is likely to bottom out and to rise somewhat through 2015考虑到一定程度的而非剧烈的经济再平衡，从现在起到2015 年，消费在经济中所 占份额将见底并有所上升 2、The government claims that the recession is bottoming out. 声称经济萧条正达到回升前的最低点，不再继续恶化。 3、The price of oil finally bottomed out and began to rise again. 石油价格终于在下跌到最低点后又开始回升。 shrink 收缩 第7、10、15页 bottom （out） 见底 第11页

edge （down） 逐渐下降 第11页 1、The ratios of investment and saving in GDP edge down gradually. 投资和储蓄在GDP 中所占比重将逐渐下降。 2、Inflation may edge down only slowly. 通货膨胀率可能只会缓慢地下降。 平稳类 Remain low 保持低位 第1、21页 1、Inflation has picked up somewhat, but core inflation remains low. 通货膨胀有所上升，但核心通胀仍保持低位 2、such flexibility gives monetary policy more room to be in line with domestic needs and to raise interest rates even when interest rates in high income countries remain low. 即使发达国家利率保持低位时，中国仍可实行加息 3、One cause of China's elevated investment rate is that interest rates remain low. 中国投资率居高不下的原因之一，是利率仍然很低。 1、China’s economic growth has remained strong. 中国经济增长保持强劲。 2、The numbers in the months ahead will undoubtedly remain strong. 未来几个月的数字毫无疑问会保持坚挺。 3、Significant positive economic data may mean that the market will remain strong. 乐观的经济数据很大可能意味着市场将维持强势。 1、Taking into account the global context and assuming they broadly stay at their May level the rest of 2010 考虑到全球形势并假定今年剩下的时间贸易条件保持5 月份的水平 Remain strong 保持强劲 第2页 stay 保持 第9页

2、最好的希望是全球增长能够转而依靠新兴经济体保持强势。 The best hope that global growth can stay strong lies instead with emerging economies. 3、明年经济增长估计比较缓慢，意味着企业收入增长也会保持疲软。 Economic growth is expected to be slow next year, suggesting revenue growth will stay sluggish, as well. hold up 基本不变 第11页 1、The current account surplus would rise substantially in US dollar terms and hold up, as a share of GDP, because of rising income on growing foreign assets. 不过，由于日益增加的外汇储备带来更多收益，以美元 计的经常帐户盈余将会显著上升，同时其占GDP 的比例将基本不变。 2、If raw material prices would be 10 percent higher in the remaining 7 months of 2010, with manufactured goods prices and all else unchanged, the current account surplus would be 0.5 % of GDP lower. 如果今年后7 个月的原材料价格比5 月份的水平高于10%，而制成品和其他产品价格水平保持不变，那么中国的经常帐户余额占GDP 的比重将下降0.5 个百分点。 3、Share price have hold up well. 股票价格保持在高价位上。 1、 Moreover, estimated unit labor cost has been constant in recent quarters, 此外，近几个季度的劳动力单位成本保持平稳， 2、During the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, China's foreign trade and economic cooperation has withstood the severe test of the Asian financial crisis and maintained a sound momentum of constant growth. 九五期间我国对外经济贸易经受住了亚洲金融危机的严峻考验，保持了不断发展的良好势头。 1、we leave our GDP growth forecast unchanged at 9.5 percent for this year and reduce that for 2011 slightly to 8.5 percent我们对全年GDP 增长的预测保持不变，为9.5%，但对2011 年的预测略微下调至8.5% constant 保持平稳 第5、6页 unchange 保持不变 第9、11、15页

2、If raw material prices would be 10 percent higher in the remaining 7 months of 2010, with manufactured goods prices and all else unchanged, the current account surplus would be 0.5 % of GDP lower. 如果今年后7 个月的原材料价格比5 月份的水平高于10%，而制成品和其他产品价格水平保持不变，那么中国的经常帐户余额占GDP 的比重将下降0.5 个百分点。 3、The 2010 budget foresees a broadly unchanged budget deficit, compared to 2009. 2010 年安排的预算赤字基本上与2009 年相当。 Solid 稳健 第4页 1、Household consumption growth has remained solid, in line with a favorable labor market. 受益于理想的劳动力市场状况，居民消费保持稳健。 2、A good source of the project, the company will have solid growth performance. 良好的项目来源，将使公司业绩具备稳健增长的能力。 3、We believe that the Chicken prices in China still have a chance to rise, even though most cities have achieved solid growth in 2004. 我们认为，中国楼价在鸡年仍然有较大机会再上升，即使大多数城市在2004 年已实现稳健增长。

分析：

 表示下降的词共出现了14个——reduce, decline, slow, low, diminish, fall,

collapse, shrink, bottom , edge down，collapse, downward, contained, down. 其中，reduce, decline, slow, fall, down,出现次数较多，属高频词汇。

 同一个词会用它不同的变体。如decline有declining, decline, decelerate,

deceleration.

 降低，减缓有不同的程度。如：slow slightly, fall steeply.  降低减缓的逆向表达法：如：growth with some softening, grow is likely to ease,

increase has declined.

 表示平稳的词有：remain , stay, hold up, constant, unchanged, solid. 其中，

remain 和solid 出现频率较高。

 较上升，下降表达方式而言，平稳的表达方式变化较少。